Betting markets show Kamala Harris running neck-and-neck with Biden. Betting markets indicate Kamala Harris running neck-and-neck with Biden for the Democratic nomination. The tight race suggests growing competition within the party.
The fallout from the presidential debate between former President Trump and President Biden has catalyzed bettors to hedge their bets on whether Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris will be the Democratic presidential nominee. On Wednesday, the prediction market platform Polymarket showed bettors giving Biden a 49% chance of becoming the nominee compared to a 35% chance for Harris; last Thursday, before the debate, Biden was shown at 90% assured before he plummeted after his disastrous performance. Harris’ chance at becoming the nominee was at a miniscule 1% before the debate, according to Polymarket, Forbes reported.
Another prediction market platform, PredictIt, showed Biden with a 42-38 cent lead (a 4% gain, as cents are equivalent to percentages on the site) over Harris on Wednesday; at one point earlier in the week, the platform actually showed Harris clinging to a 1% lead.
The shift in betting odds is a clear indication of the uncertainty surrounding Biden’s candidacy after his poor debate performance. His struggles to answer questions coherently and his overall demeanor have raised concerns about his fitness for office, leading many to question whether he is the best candidate to take on Trump in the general election.
Meanwhile, Harris has seen her stock rise in the prediction markets, with many bettors viewing her as a more viable alternative to Biden. Her performance in the debate was seen as strong, and her campaign has been gaining momentum in recent weeks.
“While much of his work has been transformational, he pledged to be transitional,” Doggett continued.
The betting odds are not the only indication of trouble for Biden’s campaign. On Tuesday, Texas Democrat Rep. Lloyd Doggett became the first Democratic member of the House to call for Biden to step down. Doggett cited Biden’s poor performance in polls and the debate, as well as his failure to defend his accomplishments and expose Trump’s lies.
Doggett drew parallels with Lyndon Johnson’s decision to withdraw from the 1968 presidential race, hoping that Biden will make a similar “painful and difficult decision” to put the country’s interests above his own. Johnson withdrew from the race after a narrow victory in the New Hampshire primary and the entry of Senator Robert F. Kennedy into the race.
As the Democratic party grapples with the implications of Biden’s debate performance, the prediction markets will likely continue to fluctuate. One thing is clear, however: the race for the Democratic nomination is far from over, and the coming weeks will be crucial in determining who will ultimately face off against Trump in the general election.
In addition to the prediction market odds, Trump’s lead over both Biden and Harris on PredictIt is also noteworthy. On Wednesday, the platform showed Trump with a 59-23 cent lead over Harris and a 59-20 cent lead over Biden. This suggests that bettors are not only questioning Biden’s ability to win the nomination but also his ability to beat Trump in the general election.
As the campaign season heats up, the Democratic party will be forced to confront the reality of Biden’s struggles and the implications for the general election. Will Biden be able to regain momentum, or will Harris or another candidate emerge as a stronger contender? The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the fate of the Democratic party and the future of the country.
