As Maryland’s Senate race heats up, Prince George’s County Executive Angela D. Alsobrooks has surged ahead of former Governor Larry Hogan, according to a new poll released on Wednesday, August 28. The survey, conducted by Gonzales Research & Media Services between August 24 and August 30, shows Alsobrooks with a five-point lead over Hogan, just over two months before the November election.
The poll indicates that 46 percent of registered voters would support Alsobrooks if the election were held today, compared to 41 percent for Hogan. This lead is significant for Alsobrooks, especially given the competitive nature of the race. The momentum for Alsobrooks appears to be linked to her recent high-profile appearance at the Democratic National Convention, where she delivered a compelling speech that included personal anecdotes and emphasized her long-standing friendship with Vice President Kamala Harris. Her speech was aimed at energizing Democratic voters and capitalizing on the excitement surrounding Harris’s presidential campaign.
Hogan, known for his independent stance and criticism of former President Donald Trump, has been working hard to counterbalance Alsobrooks’s gains. On Tuesday, Hogan’s campaign launched a new advertisement highlighting his achievements during his two terms as governor. The ad also references his prompt response to the January 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection, showcasing his decision to deploy the state’s National Guard to protect the Capitol. Despite these efforts, Hogan faces a challenging path ahead. The latest poll reveals that while 50 percent of those surveyed view him favorably, only 41 percent are committed to voting for him.
Patrick E. Gonzales, the author of the poll, notes Hogan’s broad appeal but also underscores the fundamental challenge he faces: winning over a significant portion of Democratic voters.
“Hogan is that unique politician whose appeal is broad and spread among the electorate rather evenly,”
Gonzales wrote. “But for a Republican to win statewide in Maryland, it always comes down to basic mathematics. Can Hogan secure 30% of the Democratic vote to ensure victory on November 5th?”
For Alsobrooks, the primary challenge remains increasing her name recognition. The poll reveals that 34 percent of registered voters are still unfamiliar with her. This lack of recognition is more pronounced among independents, with 33 percent indicating they do not know who she is. Even among Democrats, 17 percent are not aware of Alsobrooks. This lack of awareness could be a significant hurdle as the election approaches.
Moreover, among undecided voters, 72 percent do not recognize Alsobrooks’s name, and 13 percent have no opinion about her. Just 16 percent of undecided voters view her favorably. To counteract this, Alsobrooks has been working to establish a clear and compelling image, including ads that attempt to tie Hogan to Trump and portray him as out of touch with current issues.
In response, Hogan’s campaign has criticized Alsobrooks as being too inexperienced for the role of U.S. Senator. Additionally, a political action committee funded by John Bolton, former national security adviser under Trump, has released an ad portraying Prince George’s County in a negative light and questioning Alsobrooks’s capability to handle national security issues.
The race is shaping up to be closely contested, with both candidates working diligently to define themselves and their opponents to voters. The second installment of Gonzales’s survey also highlighted the broader political context, showing that 56 percent of voters would support Harris in the presidential election, while 35 percent would back Trump. Among independents, Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump, with 26 percent of independents undecided.
With the poll’s margin of error at plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, the Maryland Senate race remains fluid, with both candidates striving to make their final push as Election Day approaches.
